BC copper rebounds after hitting a low in the night session, with favourable macro front boosting the rally [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2508 contract opened at 70,820 yuan/mt, closing the day with a positive candlestick, indicating an increase in long positions. During the night session, the most-traded BC copper contract dipped to an intraday low of 70,720 yuan/mt at the start, before copper prices steadily moved higher. During the daytime session, prices pulled back slightly to 70,980 yuan/mt after opening, then fluctuated upward, reaching an intraday high of 71,370 yuan/mt. The contract closed at 71,250 yuan/mt, up 1,130 yuan/mt from the previous close, a gain of 1.61%. Open interest stood at 4,872 lots, an increase of 1,680 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume reaching 9,097 lots. On the macro side, the final actual GDP of the US in Q1 2025 declined by 0.5%, reinforcing expectations of economic weakness. The escalation of tariff policies exacerbated stagflation risks and economic pressures. Coupled with rumors of a "change in leadership" at the US Fed, which sparked concerns about its independence and policy soundness, the US dollar weakened, supporting copper prices.

The SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 79,920 yuan/mt. Based on the most-traded BC copper 2508 contract price of 71,250 yuan/mt, the after-tax price would be approximately 80,513 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2508 contract and the BC copper contract was -593, maintaining an inversion and widening compared to the previous day.